Good report from Rob Reynolds projecting dramatically increasing sales of digital textbooks. Though digital textbooks currently represent only 3 percent of the market (up from 1.5 percent the year before), "over the next 5 years, digital textbook sales in the United States will surpass 25% of combined new textbook sales for the Higher Education and Career Education markets. Moreover, we expect digital to be the dominant form factor in Higher Education textbooks inside of 7 years." Also worth noting at the end of the report is the observation that "Once e-textbook sales reach 13%, however, the financial model breaks down significantly as digital textbooks are no longer incremental and, instead, actually begin to cannibalize print sales deeply." This is the basis for a prediction that publisher revenues will begin to be increasingly derived from services.
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