When you say "one in a billion chance" what do you mean? If you're Rudolf Carnap, you mean that there are one billion logical possibilities, and this is one of them. But then any state of affairs is one in a billion, and you've said nothing. If you're Hans Reichenbach, you mean that of the last billion occurrences, this has happened only once. But we've only had one occurrence, so again this is meaningless. Or if you're Frank Ramsey, it means you would bet one billion dollars to get one billion and one dollars back if you're right (and lose it all if you're wrong). But there's nobody to take this bet, so again the statement is meaningless. You can't talk meaningfully about the probability of reality. And that (not this refutation) is why Elon Musk is wrong.
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