Stephen Downes

This is a textbook example of an 'inference to the best explanation', also known as abductive reasoning. Explanations are evaluated by their coverage (do they explain every case?) and by their simplicity(do they involve the fewest parameters possible). Good explanations are also testable. This meets all three criteria: all the tariff rates are explained, it's a very simple explanation (trade divided by trade deficit equals percentage), and it can be tested by putting the same question to AI engines. Sure, the explanation means that the American calculations are completely made up, but that's actually more plausible than any alternative. Kudos to James Surowiecki for working this out (though to be fair, the crowd probably helped him).