I do a lot of predicting in this newsletter and while I don't use this rubric (my definition of 'usefulness', for example, if very different) these are the sorts of things I do take into account. And I use something I saw somewhere once called the 'two advances' rule. Which is: any old technology can be an advance in one type of thing. But a new technology will take off only if it represents a major advance in two separate dimensions. The Wii, for example, not only uses wireless controllers (one advance) it also uses motion detection (two advances).
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