I've been hearing a lot more buzz about HTML 5 recently (and, related, Bespin), not so much as competition for Flash, but as something that will greatly enhance the core functionality of web pages, allowing us to embed videos and applications as easily as we now embed images. This was always part of the plan, of course, but it really came derailed over the last five or six years. Expect to see HTML 5 sooner rather than later. As Bex Huff says, "there are millions of people dedicated to making the web better; but only one small part of Adobe is dedicated to making Flash better. The same holds true for Silverlight and JavaFX." More here.
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