Good post about some of the difficulties inherent in predicting the future. Tim Kastelle focuses in particular on the use of data to predict student numbers in proposed courses. As Greg Satell says, "The problem starts when smart people in nice suits and lab jackets proclaim that 'the data says...' In truth, the data never says anything. We interpret it in one way or another and there are lots of ways to interpret it incorrectly... The future is hard to predict not just because of our cognitive biases or inexplicable natural events, but because we have the power to make our own future."
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