I think everyone is expecting that students returning to school in the fall (or later) will not have kept pace with projected educational achievement. A New York Times article summarizes several studies confirming this. What's interesting (to me, at least) is that they give us a glimpse into a world of educational achievement metrics. This study (57 page PDF) opens a window to things like MAP® Growth™ (sic) assessments and projects the expected impact on growth by comparing it to similar impacts found as a result of absenteeism and summer vacation. Another study estimates impacts based on student progress using Zearn, a math training app (we can't actually read this study). Third, a study from McKinsey looks at the impacts of projected learning loss on marginalized groups based on a Credo study of online charter schools and on student use of i-Ready software. What I note is that, first, these are all examples of what is considered 'evidence-based' research on student achievement, but second, the evidentiary base is flimsy and unrepresentative. That doesn't mean their predictions are wrong, only that the evidence for them is insufficient. And, I think, the easy prediction here is being used to justify the method, rather than the other way around.
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