This report (24 page PDF) from Coursera is clearly aimed at institutions looking to convert MOOC participants into degree-seeking students. Viewed from that perspective we can begin to assess their data in a brighter light. Success leads to success, for example: "Students who complete an open course are 12% more likely to persist in their degree." Is 12% a good conversion rate? I don't know - it would have to be compared with other strategies. The report also states, "When students are not paying but simply enrolling in open courses, we see a negative effect on later degree retention," which makes sense, but only because the student was never pursuing a degree to begin with.
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