This paper (38 page PDF) proclaims itself as "the largest survey of its kind" and reports on a survey of "2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues, asking for their predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems." If I had to characterize them, the answers are, I would say, 'rapid', 'advanced' and 'mixed'. Also, "respondents were asked when four specific occupations would become fully automatable: 'Truck driver,' 'Surgeon,' 'Retail salesperson,' and 'AI researcher'." The answer? Not long. Have we changed the way we educate people for a world in which this takes less than 40 years? Nope.
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